The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.37% this past week according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.46% the week before and below the 6.62% we saw a year ago. The 15-year fixed came in at 5.74%. After a rough March for anyone watching rates, that dip was a welcome sight, and Freddie Mac's chief economist noted it could set up a better spring homebuying season than last year.
What's Moving Markets
The biggest story of the week was the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran announced on Wednesday, tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reacted instantly. U.S. crude oil closed down more than 16% to about $94 a barrel, its largest one-day decline since 2020, while the Dow jumped more than 1,300 points and the Nasdaq gained nearly 3%. Oil crept back up later in the week as Iran continued to limit tanker traffic, but the trend was still a relief after crude flirted with $120 in March. Gas prices remain painful, sitting around $4.16 nationally, but analysts expect them to ease slowly if the truce holds.
Why does this matter for mortgage rates? Because oil drives inflation expectations, and inflation expectations drive the bond yields that lenders price loans against. A calmer energy picture is one of the few paths back toward the sub-6% rates we saw briefly in February.
Inflation Check
Friday's Consumer Price Index report for March showed why the Fed has been so cautious. Headline inflation jumped 0.9% for the month and 3.3% year over year, the highest annual reading since April 2024, driven by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. The better news was underneath the surface: core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose only 0.2% for the month and 2.6% for the year, both a touch below forecasts. Medical care, personal care and used vehicles all fell in price. In other words, the inflation problem is mostly a fuel problem, and fuel has started to come down.
The labor market also gave a stronger showing than expected. The March jobs report showed 178,000 positions added against a forecast of roughly 59,000, with unemployment ticking down to 4.3% and health care leading the hiring. Solid jobs plus cooling core inflation is a reasonable backdrop for housing, even if it gives the Fed no urgency to cut at its meeting later this month.
Housing Watch
Nationally, the spring market is still finding its footing. Freddie Mac's survey rate averaged about 6.18% in March before the energy shock pushed it back toward 6.5%, and that swing showed up in slower contract activity across much of the country. Inventory, however, keeps building in most regions, which is quietly improving conditions for buyers who stayed patient through the volatility. We will get the official March existing-home sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors this week and will break them down in our next update.
What This Means for Central Utah
Here in Richfield, Salina, Monroe and the surrounding valleys, a 6.37% rate feels very different than it does along the Wasatch Front. With Utah's statewide median price above $500,000 and Sevier County homes typically closing in the mid-$300,000s, the monthly payment gap between here and Salt Lake or Utah County is often $1,000 or more. That affordability edge is exactly why we keep seeing families relocate south for work-from-home or retirement.
For buyers, remember that most of our towns, including Monroe, Salina, Manti, Ephraim, Nephi, Delta and Loa, qualify for USDA Rural Development loans with zero down payment and competitive rates. If you were priced out when rates spiked in March, this week's move lower is worth a fresh pre-approval conversation. For sellers, spring listings are starting to hit the market, and buyers are comparing carefully. Price to the recent comparable sales rather than to last year's hopes, make sure the exterior looks sharp as the snow melts, and you will be in a strong position as the season picks up. Reach out to our team anytime for a no-pressure look at where your Central Utah home stands.