Mortgage rates kept sliding this past week, with Freddie Mac reporting a 30-year fixed average of 6.30%, a four-week low and down from 6.37% the week prior. The 15-year fixed dropped to 5.65%. Compared with 6.83% at this time last year, that is more than half a point of improvement heading into the heart of spring, and our team is seeing it show up in showing requests around Richfield and Manti.
National Snapshot
The National Association of Realtors released March existing-home sales on Monday, and the numbers reflected the rate spike we lived through last month. Sales fell 3.6% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.98 million, down about 1% from a year earlier, with declines in all four regions. The national median price still rose 1.4% to a March record of $408,800. Inventory climbed to 1.36 million homes, a 4.1-month supply, which is up from both February and last March. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun pointed to softer consumer confidence and slower job growth as headwinds, and the association trimmed its 2026 sales forecast to a 4% gain.
Our read: more inventory and steady prices is a healthier setup than the frantic markets of a few years ago. Buyers have choices, and sellers who price well are still getting deals done.
Oil, Iran and the Rate Outlook
Energy markets delivered another dramatic turn on Friday when Iran's foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz open. U.S. crude fell almost 12% to about $83.85 a barrel and Brent dropped 9% to roughly $90.38, the lowest levels since the conflict began in late February. Earlier in the week, prices had bounced as Tehran continued restricting tanker traffic, so this is still a fragile situation with the two-week ceasefire due to expire on Tuesday.
For mortgage rates, cheaper oil is good news on two fronts. It cools headline inflation, which was running 3.3% in March almost entirely because of energy, and it eases the pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield that lenders price against. That is the main reason rates have now fallen three weeks in a row. We would not count on a straight line down, but the direction is finally friendly.
The Fed's Next Move
The Federal Reserve meets April 28-29, and nobody expects a rate change. Policymakers held at 3.50%-3.75% in January and March, and with inflation elevated by fuel costs they have little reason to move now. What we will be watching is the tone: whether the committee signals that cuts are back on the table later this year if energy prices keep falling. That language will matter more for mortgage rates than the decision itself.
What This Means for Central Utah
The Utah Association of Realtors' March report gives us fresh local numbers, and Sevier County stood out. Closed sales jumped to 24 in March from 15 a year earlier, a 60% increase, and year-to-date sales are up more than 50%. The county's median sales price for March was $350,000, essentially flat from a year ago, while the year-to-date median rose to $345,000. Sanpete County posted 26 closings, up 30%, with a $424,000 median. Statewide, the median hit $518,900, up 3.8%, and closed sales rose 7%.
What we take from this: buyers are active in Central Utah, and they are getting homes at roughly two-thirds of the statewide median price. With rates at a four-week low and USDA zero-down financing available in most of our rural towns, this is a genuinely good window for first-time buyers in Sevier County and beyond. For sellers, the 60% jump in local sales tells you demand is here, but the flat median price says buyers are not overpaying. Price your home to the market, present it well, and lean on our team's local comps rather than online estimates. Give us a call if you want a straight answer on what your home would sell for this spring.