The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.46 percent this week, reaching a seven-month high as the market enters what analysts are calling a "holding pattern." Buyers, sellers, and lenders are all watching and waiting — for developments in the Iran conflict, for the next batch of economic data, and for any signal from the Fed about when rate cuts might resume.
National Snapshot
Oil prices remain elevated, with Brent crude trading in the $110 to $116 range. The March CPI report, scheduled for next week, is expected to show a noticeable jump in energy-related inflation — the first report to fully capture the impact of surging gas prices. Analysts are bracing for a headline number that could temporarily push annual inflation well above the Fed's 2 percent target.
On the construction front, tariffs continue to weigh on new home building. The combined effect of 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, 45 percent duties on Canadian lumber, and broader trade policy uncertainty is estimated to add $10,000 to $17,500 to the cost of building a typical new single-family home. The Center for American Progress projects that these tariff-induced higher building costs could result in 450,000 fewer homes being built over the next five years — exacerbating the very supply shortage that has kept home prices elevated.
A Mixed Outlook for Buyers and Sellers
The silver lining in all of this is that some forecasters, including Fannie Mae, still project rates dipping back into the high fives by the second half of the year — assuming the geopolitical situation stabilizes and inflation does not become entrenched. For buyers who can act now, reduced competition and increased negotiating power may offset the higher rate environment.
Nationally, home price appreciation has slowed to just 1.1 percent year over year — the lowest reading in years. That is good news for affordability, though it means sellers need to set realistic expectations about their listing price.
What This Means for Central Utah
Despite the national headwinds, Central Utah continues to offer some of the best value in the state. Our median home prices remain hundreds of thousands of dollars below the statewide average, and the quality of life in communities like Richfield, Salina, Manti, Ephraim, Nephi, and Delta is drawing new residents who are priced out of the Wasatch Front or looking for a change of pace.
For buyers, USDA loans remain available in many of our rural communities, offering zero-down financing that can make homeownership accessible even in a higher-rate environment. For sellers, spring is still the strongest season for buyer activity — but accurate pricing and solid preparation are more important than ever.
We will continue to provide weekly updates as the market evolves. If you have questions about how current conditions affect your specific situation, our team is always happy to talk through the numbers and help you make an informed decision.