Freddie Mac's August 6 survey came in at 6.69% for the 30-year fixed, up slightly from 6.66%, while the 15-year eased to 6.01%. It is a small milestone of the wrong kind: for the first time this year, the 30-year rate is above where it was 12 months ago (6.63% in early August 2025). The survey closed before Friday's jobs report, though, and that report changed the conversation.
National Snapshot
The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, the first monthly decline in years and a sharp miss against expectations of roughly 80,000 to 95,000 new positions. June was revised down to a gain of only 20,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, but again because people left the labor force, not because hiring picked up. Government employment fell by 53,000, retail and hospitality were soft, and average hourly earnings rose just 3.2% over the year, the slowest since 2021.
Bad news for workers turned into cautious good news for borrowers. Treasury yields dropped Friday, stocks rallied to finish a winning week, and the odds of a Fed rate hike in September fell as traders concluded a weakening job market gives the committee room to wait. A majority of futures traders now expect the Fed to hold at 3.50% to 3.75% next month. If that view sticks, mortgage rates should have a little less upward pressure in the weeks ahead.
What's Moving Markets
Energy remains the wild card. Brent crude was trading around $87.55 this morning, still more than $20 above a year ago, and Iran rejected new U.S. talks over the weekend while the naval blockade continues. Gasoline near $4 a gallon in much of the country is keeping headline inflation elevated, and the July CPI report due Wednesday will show whether June's improvement held or reversed. That report, more than anything else, will determine where mortgage rates head into Labor Day.
Inventory Watch
Freddie Mac's chief economist offered a useful summary this week: listing prices are running modestly below year-ago levels nationally, and for-sale inventory has improved meaningfully from the tight supply of the past few years. We saw that in the June data too, with new-home prices down 2.7% year over year and 485,000 new homes on the market. Sellers are adjusting, and buyers who have been patient are starting to find negotiating room they did not have in 2024 or 2025.
What This Means for Central Utah
Late summer is traditionally when Central Utah real estate shifts from family relocations to a quieter, more deliberate fall market. This year that transition is arriving with rates near 6.7% and a national market tilting toward buyers. Our advice:
Buyers: the combination of rising inventory and softer listing prices means you can be selective. Ask for closing-cost help or a rate buydown; many sellers will say yes. If you are buying in Richfield, Salina, Monroe, Manti, Ephraim, Nephi, Delta, or Loa, check USDA zero-down eligibility first, because it can eliminate the biggest barrier to home buying, the down payment. And keep an eye on Wednesday's inflation report; a soft number could open a short window of lower rates.
Sellers: the message from the national data is clear. Homes priced at or just below recent comparable sales are moving; homes priced above them are accumulating days on market. If your home has been listed since spring without an offer, this is the week to have an honest conversation about price or concessions. Our team can show you exactly what has sold in your neighborhood over the past 60 days and what those buyers paid.
Central Utah continues to offer something the Wasatch Front cannot: a real home on a real lot at a price a working family can afford, even at today's mortgage rates. If you would like a no-pressure look at the numbers for your situation, reach out to our team anytime.