Good news to start the holiday week: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 6.43% in Freddie Mac's July 2 survey, down from 6.49% the week before and the lowest reading in seven weeks. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.79%. A year ago the 30-year sat at 6.67%, so buyers today are borrowing a little cheaper than last summer. Freddie Mac's chief economist noted that purchase demand has been edging higher as affordability improves at the margin, and our team is seeing the same thing on the ground in Sevier County.
National Snapshot
The June jobs report, released Thursday, showed the labor market cooling. Employers added just 57,000 jobs, well below the roughly 115,000 economists expected, and May was revised down to 129,000. The unemployment rate actually fell to 4.2%, but mostly because fewer people were in the labor force; participation dropped to 61.5%, the lowest since early 2021. Leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 positions, which the BLS attributed to slower seasonal hiring.
Why does that matter for mortgage rates? Weaker hiring takes pressure off the Federal Reserve. Bond markets rallied on the news, and traders trimmed their bets that the Fed will need to raise rates as soon as September. That is a big part of why the 30-year rate eased this week.
On the housing side, the most recent national data (May existing-home sales) showed a 3.2% monthly increase, a sign that buyers do step in when rates move even modestly lower.
What's Moving Markets
Energy prices have been the other big story. After spiking above $118 a barrel in March at the height of the Middle East conflict, Brent crude has fallen back to roughly $72, essentially where it sat before the war began. That decline has been the single largest factor pulling inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and mortgage rates down over the past several weeks. The ceasefire and the June memorandum between the U.S. and Iran are holding for now, though shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains a watch item.
The Fed itself is in a holding pattern. At its June 16-17 meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the committee kept the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% but removed language that had hinted at future cuts, and the median projection now leans toward at least one rate hike this year if inflation does not cool. Minutes from that meeting come out Wednesday, and we will be reading them closely.
Utah Check-In
Statewide, the Utah Association of Realtors reported a May median sold price of $528,000, up 3.5% from a year earlier, even as pending sales softened. The pattern across Utah has been consistent this spring: fewer transactions, but prices holding because listings have pulled back along with buyers. The Wasatch Front remains stretched on affordability, which continues to push families toward communities like Richfield, Salina, Monroe, and Ephraim where a comparable home costs a fraction of what it does in Salt Lake or Utah County.
What This Means for Central Utah
A seven-week low in mortgage rates during the peak of summer buying season is exactly the kind of window we tell clients to watch for. If you have been pre-approved and waiting, this is a good week to revisit the numbers with your lender. Remember that most of our rural towns qualify for USDA zero-down loans, which pair nicely with a rate dip and can put a Sevier County home within reach without a large down payment.
For sellers, the lesson from the statewide data is that buyers are active but selective. Homes priced to the market are drawing showings and offers; homes priced for 2022 are sitting. With school starting in a few weeks, families relocating to Central Utah want to close before mid-August, so now is the time to have your home show-ready. Our team is happy to walk through a pricing strategy that fits your neighborhood, whether you are in Richfield, Manti, Nephi, or Delta.
Enjoy the Fourth of July celebrations, and reach out if you would like a personalized look at what today's rates mean for your home buying or home selling plans in Central Utah.