Mortgage rates barely moved this week, and after the jump we saw before Memorial Day, that counts as a small win. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed averaged 6.53% for the week ending May 28, up just two basis points from 6.51%. The 15-year fixed came in at 5.87%. Freddie Mac's chief economist pointed to pending home sales rising three months in a row as evidence that there is real demand waiting on the sidelines, ready to move if rates ease. That matches what we are seeing in Central Utah: plenty of buyers are pre-approved and watching, and a dip toward 6.25% would bring many of them off the fence.
Oil Takes a Breather
The most encouraging development for future mortgage rates happened in the energy market. Brent crude fell almost 19% in May, its worst month since the pandemic, and finished the month around $92.56 a barrel, roughly 20% below its 2026 peak. The driver is optimism that the United States and Iran are close to a 60-day agreement that would pause hostilities and reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy has been the main reason inflation has been running hot, so if crude keeps sliding, the pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates should ease with it. We are not counting on it yet; security concerns in the Gulf remain, and markets have been burned by false starts before.
Inflation and Growth: A Mixed Picture
Thursday brought a busy data day. The second estimate of first-quarter GDP was revised down to 1.6% annualized from 2.0%, with softer consumer spending and investment. The April PCE report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed headline prices up 3.8% from a year ago and core prices up 3.3%. Both are well above the Fed's 2% target. Consumer confidence slipped to 93.1 in May as households mentioned gas prices and the war more often, and the share of people calling jobs plentiful fell to its lowest since 2021.
Put those together and you get an economy that is growing slowly while prices stay elevated. That is an uncomfortable combination for the Fed, and it is why rate cuts have moved off the table for the near term.
New Homes Pile Up, Prices Stay Flat
New-home sales fell 6.2% in April to a 622,000 annual pace, 11.3% below last April and the slowest April since 2022. Builders now have 9.4 months of supply on hand, and the median new-home price was $422,500. On the resale side, the Case-Shiller national index showed home prices up just 0.7% year over year in March, with more than half of major metros posting annual declines. Nationally, inflation has outpaced home price growth for ten straight months.
What This Means for Central Utah
June is the start of our busiest season, and the national numbers cut in our favor in two ways. First, big-builder inventory piling up in places like Phoenix and Texas does not exist here; new construction in Sevier and Sanpete counties is limited, so resale homes carry the market and well-kept properties still attract attention. Second, flat national prices mean buyers moving in from Salt Lake, Utah County, or out of state have more confidence that they are not overpaying, and our price points look even more attractive by comparison.
For buyers, a 6.53% rate on a modest Central Utah home is a very different monthly payment than the same rate on a Wasatch Front listing. Combine that with USDA zero-down financing in eligible towns like Salina, Monroe, Loa, and Delta, and home buying here remains within reach for working families. For sellers, June listings get the most eyes of the year. Price to the comparable sales, not to the headlines, and lean on good preparation. Our team is glad to walk you through both sides of the equation for Sevier County homes and the surrounding valleys.