Six weeks of the same story: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.49% for the week ending June 25, up two basis points from 6.47%, and the 15-year fixed came in at 5.84%. Since mid-May the 30-year has stayed inside a narrow band between 6.47% and 6.53%. Freddie Mac's chief economist noted that purchase activity eased a bit while refinancing has picked up, a sign that homeowners who bought at 7% or higher in 2023 and 2024 are quietly taking advantage. If you are one of them, it is worth a conversation with your lender.
Oil Returns to Pre-War Prices
The best news of the week came from the energy market. Brent crude fell to $72.68 a barrel on Thursday and West Texas Intermediate to $69.58, the lowest levels for both since February 27, the day before the Iran war began. The U.S. Energy Secretary said flows through the Strait of Hormuz are close to pre-war levels, with more than 20 million barrels leaving the strait in a single day, though clearing mines will take a few more weeks. Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued warnings about unauthorized crossings, so the situation is not settled. Still, cheaper crude feeds directly into lower gasoline prices, lower headline inflation, and eventually lower pressure on mortgage rates.
Inflation, Growth, and the Consumer
The inflation data has not caught up with oil yet. The May PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure, rose 0.4% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago, the highest since April 2023. Core PCE was 3.4%, the highest since October 2023. The silver lining is that both personal income and spending rose 0.7% in May, well above forecasts, so households are keeping up. Several economists suggested May may mark the peak of this inflation wave because crude fell so hard in June.
First-quarter GDP was also revised up to 2.1% in the third estimate, from 1.6%, thanks mostly to a big downward revision to imports. Consumer spending in the quarter was revised down to just 0.5%, so the underlying picture is steady rather than strong.
New Homes Feel the Squeeze
New-home sales fell 7.3% in May to a 580,000 annual pace, 6.8% below last year and short of expectations. The median new-home price was $424,900, essentially flat from a year ago, and builders are sitting on 10.3 months of supply. Higher rates and elevated prices pushed some would-be new-construction buyers to the sidelines, which nationally is pushing builders toward incentives and rate buydowns.
What This Means for Central Utah
At the halfway point of 2026, here is our read on Central Utah real estate. Rates have been stable for six weeks, prices statewide are up modestly, listings are down from last year, and the Fed has signaled it is in no hurry to cut. That is a market where patience and preparation win. Buyers in Sevier, Sanpete, Juab, Wayne, and Piute counties have a clear rate to plan around, a manageable amount of competition, and, in most of our towns, access to USDA zero-down financing that makes a 6.49% rate far more workable than it looks on paper.
Sellers heading into the July 4th week should remember that the buyers still out looking in midsummer are serious ones. With new-home competition nationally piling up but very little new construction here, a well-maintained existing home in Richfield, Ephraim, Manti, or Nephi that is priced to the comparable sales can stand out. If you have been on the market more than 30 days without an offer, the price is the message; a modest adjustment now beats a bigger one in September.
Whether you are buying, selling, or thinking about refinancing, our team is happy to sit down and look at your numbers. Have a safe and happy Independence Day.