Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average rose for a second straight week to 6.37%, up from 6.30%, with the 15-year fixed at 5.72%. Rates are still comfortably below the 6.76% of a year ago, but the easy gains of April have stalled while oil markets whipsaw. Freddie Mac's chief economist pointed to a silver lining: new-home sales are up, median new-home prices are at their lowest level since July 2021, and inventory is higher than in recent years, all of which should modestly ease affordability pressure this spring.
Jobs Beat, Sentiment Sinks
Friday's April jobs report was better than feared. Employers added 115,000 positions against a forecast near 55,000, March was revised up to 185,000, and unemployment held at 4.3%. Health care again led hiring. Wage growth cooled to 3.6% annually, which the Fed will read as helpful on inflation. It was the strongest two-month stretch of job creation since 2024.
Consumers, though, are not feeling it. The University of Michigan's preliminary May sentiment index fell to 48.2, the lowest reading in the survey's history going back to 1952, as households cited surging gas prices and worries that inflation will spread beyond fuel. That split, a steady job market alongside record-low confidence, is the defining feature of this economy right now, and it explains why home sales are grinding sideways instead of surging on lower rates.
Builders Deliver Some Good News
The delayed March new-home sales report finally arrived on Tuesday and showed sales at a 682,000 annual pace, up 7.4% from February and 3.3% from a year earlier. The median price of a new home sold was $387,400, the lowest since mid-2021, as builders leaned on smaller floor plans and incentives to move inventory. For the overall market, cheaper new construction puts a ceiling on resale prices in growth areas but also pulls more first-time buyers into the market.
Oil's Wild Week
Energy remained the swing factor for rates. Brent crude jumped nearly 6% to about $114 on Monday as fresh attacks made the ceasefire look shaky, and gas hit $4.48 nationally on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, reports that the U.S. and Iran were close to a peace agreement sent U.S. crude down more than 6% to about $96, its first close below $100 in six days. Every headline out of the negotiations is moving the 10-year Treasury, and by extension mortgage pricing, by several basis points a day. Until a deal is signed or clearly collapses, expect rates to bounce within a fairly narrow band.
What This Means for Central Utah
The record-low sentiment number deserves some perspective from a rural Utah lens. Gas prices hit our commuters hard, no question, and folks driving from Salina or Monroe to jobs in Richfield feel every dime. But the fundamentals that matter most for Sevier County homes have not changed: employment is steady, local sales are running well ahead of last year, and our median price in the low-to-mid $300,000s remains among the most attainable in the state. Buyers who tune out the national noise and focus on their own budget are finding good homes.
With new-home prices falling nationally, we also want to remind sellers that resale homes in Central Utah compete on things a new build in a subdivision cannot offer: mature trees, established neighborhoods, larger lots, outbuildings and irrigation water. Highlight those in your listing. For buyers, a 6.37% rate paired with a USDA zero-down loan in an eligible town, or an FHA loan with 3.5% down, still pencils out well below what a comparable home would cost in Utah County. If gas prices have you rethinking a long commute, moving closer to work in Richfield, Ephraim or Nephi might be the most practical financial decision you make this year. Our team is glad to run the numbers with you.