Mortgage rates took a breather this past week. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average came in at 6.36%, a hair below the prior week's 6.37%, with the 15-year fixed at 5.71%. A year ago the 30-year sat at 6.81%. Freddie Mac noted that purchase demand is softening a bit but remains above last year's pace, and that existing-home sales are modestly edging up. In a week with a hot inflation report and a change at the top of the Federal Reserve, holding steady counts as a win.
A New Fed Chair
On Wednesday the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve by a 54-45 vote, the narrowest margin in the modern era. He takes over from Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ended Friday, and he arrives with a clear expectation from the White House that rates should come down. Powell will remain on the Board as a governor. What this means for mortgage rates is less certain than the headlines suggest: the Fed sets short-term rates, but mortgage rates follow long-term bond yields, and bond investors will be watching whether the new chair is willing to cut while inflation is running well above target. If markets sense the Fed is easing too soon, long rates could actually rise. We will know more after the June 16-17 meeting.
Inflation Re-Accelerates
Tuesday's Consumer Price Index for April was not what rate-watchers wanted. Prices rose 0.6% for the month and 3.8% from a year earlier, the highest annual rate since May 2023 and up half a point from March. Energy accounted for more than 40% of the gain, but core inflation also firmed, rising 0.4% for the month and 2.8% for the year, the largest monthly core increase since early 2025. Airline fares, apparel and food all climbed. Real wages fell for the month. April retail sales rose 0.5%, a third straight gain, though much of that reflects higher prices at the pump.
Oil is the reason. Hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal faded early in the week, pushing U.S. crude back above $100 on Tuesday and keeping it there. Until the Strait of Hormuz situation is genuinely resolved, inflation will stay elevated and mortgage rates will struggle to break below 6%.
Inventory Watch
Monday's existing-home sales report for April showed a 0.2% increase to a 4.02 million annual pace, flat from a year ago. The national median price was $417,700, up 0.9%, the 34th straight month of annual gains. The bigger story was supply: inventory rose 5.8% from March to 1.47 million homes, a 4.4-month supply. First-time buyers made up 33% of sales, and NAR's affordability index improved in every region, with the West up 12.5% from a year ago. Homes took a median of 32 days to sell, down from 41 in March.
What This Means for Central Utah
The Utah Association of Realtors' April numbers are out, and Sevier County continues to run hot. Local closed sales rose to 26 in April from 17 a year earlier, a 53% jump, and year-to-date closings are up 51% to 86. The April median sales price was $319,500, up 3.1% from a year ago, while the year-to-date median climbed to $335,000. Sanpete County closed 28 sales, up 47%, with a $381,500 median, and Juab County more than doubled its sales. Statewide, the median rose 2% to $515,000, but pending sales fell about 10% and days on market stretched to 65.
The contrast is striking: while Wasatch Front buyers hesitate, Central Utah is seeing its strongest spring in years, and our homes still cost roughly 60% of the statewide median. For buyers, a $320,000 home at 6.36% with a USDA zero-down loan in Salina, Monroe, Manti, Ephraim, Nephi or Delta is a payment many renters can beat. For sellers, the rising sales count and modest price growth tell us buyers are here but disciplined. Price to recent comparable sales, get your yard and irrigation in shape before summer showings, and expect serious offers. If you would like a current market analysis on your Central Utah property, our team is a phone call away.