Two weeks in a row of good news on mortgage rates is something we have not been able to say in a while. Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average 30-year fixed rate fell to 7.24%, down from 7.32% the week before and the lowest reading of the month. The 15-year fixed dropped to 6.60% from 6.68%. Rates are still about a full point above where they were a year ago, when the 30-year averaged 6.17%, but the direction has turned.
Here is what that looks like at the kitchen table. On a $350,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.24% runs about $2,385 a month. That is roughly $38 less than when rates peaked at 7.40% in early October. Not a game changer, but real money over the life of a loan.
Prices Blink Nationally
The other headline this week is on the price side. Redfin reported that the national median sale price slipped to $389,601 for the four weeks ending October 25, down 0.1% from a year earlier. It is the second straight week prices have come in below last year, after steady annual gains since 2023. The typical mortgage payment, however, is still near a record high at $2,786, because higher rates more than offset the small dip in prices.
Demand remains soft. Redfin's count of pending sales fell 15.9% from a year ago to the lowest level in its records, which go back to 2021. NAR's pending home sales index for September dropped 7.3% from August, and the Census Bureau put September new-home sales at a 676,000 annual pace with a median price of $400,400. Fewer buyers and steady listings mean more homes to choose from in most markets.
The Fed Holds, but Inflation Keeps Climbing
As expected, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% last Wednesday in Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting at the helm. The vote was 10–2, with two members preferring another hike. A day later, the Commerce Department reported that PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, rose to 3.6% in September from 3.4%, while core PCE edged up to 3.1%. The economy itself is running strong, with third quarter GDP growing at a 3.4% annual rate.
That mix of solid growth and stubborn inflation keeps pressure on the Fed. According to CME FedWatch data cited by Fox Business, markets see roughly an 80% chance of a quarter-point increase at the December meeting.
Energy is a big part of the inflation story. Renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude to about $113 a barrel at Friday's settlement, with WTI near $104. Brent gained more than 13% in October alone, which shows up quickly at the gas pump and in shipping costs.
Our Read on Central Utah
Utah is following the national pattern, just more gently. The Utah Association of REALTORS® reported a September statewide median sale price of $530,000, up 1.9% from a year earlier, while more than 15,000 homes are on the market statewide, about 12% more than last year. Salt Lake County's preliminary October numbers point to a sharp drop in closed sales, and local agents report that about half of sellers there have cut their asking prices.
In rural Central Utah real estate, we see a similar shift toward buyers. If you are home buying in Sevier County or around Richfield, Salina, Manti, Ephraim, Nephi or Delta, this is a good time to negotiate. Ask about seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown, which can lower your monthly payment more than a small price cut.
For home selling, pricing it right from the first day matters more than ever. Buyers are fewer, more careful and focused on the monthly payment. A well-prepared home at a realistic price still sells, while an overpriced one tends to sit through the winter.
Whether you want to compare payments or get a fresh look at what your home is worth, the Donavan & Tyson Team is always happy to help. Give us a call anytime.