For the first time in seven weeks, mortgage rates did not go up. Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average 30-year fixed rate held steady at 7.40%, unchanged from the week before, while the 15-year fixed slipped slightly to 6.71% from 6.73%. A pause is not a pullback, and rates remain more than a full point above last year’s 6.27%, but after a long climb, a flat week is a welcome change for anyone planning a move.
The bigger story this week was not the rate itself. It was how clearly higher borrowing costs are now showing up in the housing data.
A Week of Cold Housing Numbers
The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales edged up 1.5% in September to a 3.99 million annual pace, but sales were still 2.2% lower than a year ago. NAR’s chief economist said August and September were the two slowest months of the year. Inventory climbed to 1.60 million homes, a 4.8-month supply, and the national median price was $417,500, up 1.3% from last September.
The forward-looking numbers were weaker. NAR’s pending home sales, which track signed contracts, fell 7.3% from August and were down 11.3% from a year earlier. Builders are pulling back too. Housing starts fell 5.2% in September to a 1.221 million annual rate, single-family permits dropped to their lowest level since March 2023, and the National Association of Home Builders said builder sentiment fell in October to its lowest reading since June 2012.
Put together, fewer contracts today and fewer new homes started means a market that is slowing now and could stay tight on new supply into next year.
Inflation, Oil and the Fed’s Next Move
Energy remains the main pressure point. The September Consumer Price Index showed inflation rising to 3.7% from 3.4%, with gasoline up 9.1% in a single month. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, came in at 2.6%. Oil has kept climbing since then. Brent crude moved above $109 a barrel this week, a five-month high, and WTI traded near $98 as tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Persian Gulf supply.
The hot CPI report briefly pushed market odds of an October rate hike to roughly a coin flip, but those odds faded as the week went on. Futures markets now lean toward a hold when the Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, though many traders still see a hike as possible by December. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the next move in remarks last week. On a brighter note, September retail sales rose 0.8%, a sign that consumers are still spending despite higher costs.
The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to follow, eased to around 5.1% from above 5.2% the week before. If that holds, it could help keep mortgage rates from climbing further in the near term.
Reading the Signals in Central Utah
Statewide, Utah prices have mostly held their ground. One tracker of Wasatch Front MLS closings put the September median single-family price near $592,000, up about 2% from a year ago, even as monthly sales ran below last year. Our rural markets move on a smaller scale, and with only a handful of closings in a given month, local medians in Sevier County can swing widely from one month to the next. That is why we look at the individual comparable sales on your street rather than a single headline number.
For buyers, a slower market brings real advantages. Sevier County homes and properties in Richfield, Salina, Manti, Ephraim, Nephi and Delta are staying on the market longer, which gives you more time to compare and more room to ask for closing cost help or a rate buydown. The national slowdown in new construction may also mean fewer new homes competing for buyers next spring.
For home selling, the lesson of this week’s data is that buyers are fewer and very payment-focused. A home that is priced right from the start and shows well is still selling in Central Utah real estate, while overpriced listings are sitting.
Whether you want to see how today’s mortgage rates affect your budget or what your home could bring this fall, the Donavan & Tyson Team is happy to sit down and walk through the numbers with you.