After a long run of rising or flat readings, mortgage rates finally moved in the right direction. Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average 30-year fixed rate eased to 7.32%, down from 7.40% the week before. The 15-year fixed dipped to 6.68% from 6.71%. Freddie Mac’s chief economist Sam Khater said the decline offers “some relief to prospective homebuyers.”
It is a small move, and rates are still well above the 6.19% average from a year ago. But for anyone watching their budget, small moves add up. On a $350,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.32% comes to about $2,404 a month, roughly $19 less than at last week’s rate.
All Eyes on Wednesday’s Fed Decision
The Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28, with its decision due Wednesday afternoon. After raising its benchmark rate a quarter point in September to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the Fed is widely expected to hold steady this time. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect no change, and futures markets put the odds of a hike at only about 10%.
That does not mean the Fed is done. Many forecasters still see another increase possible in December, and the tone of Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments after the meeting could matter as much as the decision itself. Keep in mind that the Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. They tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which dropped back to around 5% late last week after touching multi-decade highs earlier this month.
Oil Cools a Bit, but Inflation Stays in Focus
Energy prices remain the biggest wild card. Oil slipped to start the week, with WTI crude settling near $102 a barrel on Monday and Brent above $110, though both are still far above where they were earlier this year as conflict involving Iran keeps supply concerns high.
Thursday brings two reports worth watching: the first estimate of third quarter GDP, which economists expect to show solid growth near 3%, and the September PCE inflation index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Forecasters expect headline PCE inflation to rise to about 3.6% from 3.4%, driven largely by gasoline. A hotter than expected number could push yields, and mortgage rates, back up.
A Fresh Look at Utah’s Numbers
New statewide figures from the Utah Association of REALTORS® show how higher rates are shaping the market here at home. In September, Utah closed sales fell 11.9% from a year earlier to 3,516, while the statewide median sales price rose 1.9% to $530,000. Inventory of homes for sale grew 3.6% to 17,528, and the typical home took 65 days to sell, the same as last year.
In plain terms, fewer homes are selling, but prices are holding, and buyers have a little more to choose from. That pattern is showing up in Central Utah real estate too, where Sevier County homes and properties in Richfield, Salina, Manti, Ephraim, Nephi and Delta are giving buyers more time to decide than they had a couple of years ago.
What It Means for You in Central Utah
For home buying, this week’s dip is a good reminder to stay ready. Having a current pre-approval means you can act quickly if rates ease further, and in a slower market you may have room to ask for seller help with closing costs or a rate buydown. Our buyer’s guide walks through the steps.
For home selling, the steady statewide median is encouraging, but buyers are fewer and very focused on monthly payments. Pricing right from day one matters more than ever. If you are curious what your home could bring this fall, start with a free home valuation.
Whatever Wednesday brings, the Donavan & Tyson Team is here to help you make sense of mortgage rates and what they mean for your next move. Reach out to our team anytime.